Showing posts with label Conflict. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conflict. Show all posts

Monday, May 12, 2025

A Current Reading of Man, The State, and War by Kenneth Waltz


 

(Cross-posting this here. Posted on my Medium.com website several years ago.)

As a former International Affairs scholar, I accumulated a lot of political theory books. Some I read, some I hope to, and some I may never get to. But they look good on my bookshelves.

One of the books I have always been interested in reading and recently finished is Man, The State, and War by Kenneth Waltz. Waltz was a giant in International Affairs according to his obituary in the New York Times and Man, The State, and War was his first major work. What started as his doctoral dissertation became one of the premier books for explaining how nation states interact with each other.

According to the price tag on the used copy I have, I either bought it for $1 or I acquired it from the shelves of my mother’s since closed used book store. Or maybe I bought it from her for a dollar.

Unlike other art, we don’t price books based on their relevance to society. $1 for a book that helped form an entire line of modern political thought. Although some who oppose the multi-national approach the world has taken in the last 60 years may feel $1 or even less is appropriate.

That’s my goal here: to publish my thoughts on Man, The State, and War and look at Waltz through the spectrum of what is currently happening internationally in 2018.

First and foremost, Man, The State, and War is a look at individuals, intra-national, and international relations. For Waltz, “structured realism” rules when it comes to international affairs. Waltz writes that nation states are the top negotiator of power at the international level.

That is true if one only looks at wars between nations. One nation’s military power versus another nation’s military power.

But that perspective is simplistic on a few levels.

  • Nations engage in military operations versus powerful international organizations quite often. Al Qaeda, violent extremist organizations, or even crime syndicates have a say in the defense and security of nations. In many cases, these supranational organizations have has much capabilities as nations. But while they operate on a low-cost, high-impact strategy, for Waltz, you have to pay the high-cost to be the boss.
  • Militarily isn’t the only way nations engage. Although Waltz writes a bit on trade and tariffs, the book’s focus is on war, but doesn’t mention any of the other platforms of conflict.
  • Since the book was written, international arbiters have grown. NATO, the United Nations, the IMF, the World Bank, and a list of trade blocs have worked to mitigate conflict between nations. Waltz even gets into the benefits of a European bloc before the European Union was formed.

Nation versus nation — the realist perspective — is important and valuable in the same way Clausewitz’s “total war” is important: as an easy-to-digest default setting. Once you understand checkers, you can move to chess. Once you understand chess, you can move to three dimensional, four dimensional, or multi-dimensional chess.

Of course, Man, The State, and War is a product of its time. Although Waltz’s research is deep, it is primarily focused on Western nations or the Soviet Union, as those were the main blocs of power immediately following World War II. He writes little of Asian or Middle Eastern relations. Is their perspective on individual, interstate, or intrastate relationships the same?

Without understanding different cultures, values, and individuals and the philosophical underpinnings of their relationships with their states, it is difficult to understand how they will interact internationally. If nations are a reflection of the human condition, what if the human condition is different in different regions? Not every region shares the same value set.

(Here we won’t get into tribalism tearing the fabric of states apart. But I will say our state-creating individual agreements are getting weaker.)

 Waltz concludes with the idea that international organizations are very important, as they minimize the chaos of self-interested nations acting as humans in chaos would. They create a bargaining mechanism to reduce conflict.

While we had decades of building these international systems following World War II, they have been under attack in the last few years. What would Waltz have thought of the pushback of MAGA-based nationalism, which is an extension of Brexit-based “go it alone bilateralism”? I would love to see an educated debate by people on both sides: modern nationalism versus classic international philosophy, which attempts to minimize Hobbesian chaos-led conflict.

On one hand, I am far from a financial expert or an economist, but isn’t the goal to minimize risk in the long term? These modern social movements may actually increase risk of conflict. Perhaps the economic structure has effectively detached itself from the social structure and from their perspective, bilateralism is not a bad idea. Social ideals will sort themselves out. Just vote for the person who makes the best economic sense.

I am not sure Waltz would agree.

On the other hand, Waltz describes collaborative mechanisms as a way to temper the aspirations of nations, as states and agreed upon laws temper the aspirations of man. What happens when other nations are free riders in an alliance? What if a nation wants to redraw from an international organization not because it wants to conquer its neighbors, but because it is tired of paying for the bad decisions of the neighbors it once agreed to work with?

Do the nations rewrite the agreements or does the international structure break apart? Is war a necessary cleansing agent for ill-performing international agreements?

Perhaps chaos is the default and man’s occasional pauses of peace and agreements are socio-economic experiments he has to keep working out until he finds a model that accounts for all aspects of human and state behavior — from overly aggressive to overly lazy.

Maybe we are at the cusp of another inflection point.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Thoughts on Ferguson and the Militarization of Police in America



The situation in Ferguson, Missouri continues to dominate social media. What started as a sad situation when a police officer killed a teenager has turned into much more with protests, demonstrations, looting, and an increased police presence that borders on an occupation.

I am far from Ferguson. I have no first-hand experience nor first-hand knowledge of the situation. But I did want to organize my thoughts in regards to the many discussions going on. Twitter and other social media platforms might be great for news and rapid responses, but social phenomenon and analysis are not done well in 140 characters.

Why I have this blog.

I am going to skip the incident that caused the situation and the racial makeup of Ferguson versus the racial makeup of the powers that be in area. That has been discussed in length in many other places. There are many angles to that situation that I don't know.

What I want to discuss is the concept of power.

International Affairs professor Steve Saideman wrote a really good piece today for OpenCanada.org where he compared the situations in Iraq, Israel/Gaza, and Ferguson. Saideman writes that in each instance, the trust in government and use of power was not correct. He writes that each situation boiled down to deterance and assurance - the ability of a government to deter a bad thing from happening and its ability to assure the populace that only the right amount of power will be used.

According to Saideman,
deterrence is a threat with a promise —that if you do nothing bad, nothing bad will happen to you
When America was first created, long ago in the days of our "Founding Fathers", the nation was built on the premise that power should be controlled. That the central government should not have the amount of power used by the British crown. This is the philosophy behind many of the amendments. The Constitution by nature is a restrictive document.

But Saideman states that perhaps even here in America, democracy has lost its power to control power.
Democracy is seen as the solution to this problem of combining effective governance and restrained governance.  Indeed, some of the chapters in our book make that quite clear.  Yet, even in democracies, the balancing act continues with swings towards too much coercion and too little assurance leading to tensions and conflict.  The situation in Ferguson in the U.S., where protests and even perhaps a riot have followed the shooting of a young, African-American man, illustrates this.  We need police to have the capability to use force, but we need that use of force to be limited and targeted or else the police lose legitimacy.
Which brings me to my second point, that the most extreme insurance against the imbalance of power has been eroded to the point of ineffectiveness.

"Open Carry is White Privilege"

Earlier Wednesday, I saw several tweets comparing the situation in Ferguson - where an unarmed teenager was shot - to situations in Texas, where 2nd Amendment supporters are carrying their rifles on their shoulders as they go to Wal-Mart, gas stations, church, etc. The tweets said this was a clear example of "white privilege", that the rifle-carrying persons were not seen as a threat because of the color of their skin, while the unarmed teenager, who was black, was seen as a threat solely because of the color of his skin.

I disagree completely. Open carry is not only a "white" thing. Never has been.

Prior to 1967, the Black Panther Party frequent patrolled the streets of Oakland armed with rifles. According to PBS.org,
The Police Patrols had become an integral part of BPP community policy. Members of the BPP would listen to police calls on a short wave radio, rush to the scene of the arrest with law books in hand and inform the person being arrested of their constitutional rights. BPP members also happened to carry loaded weapons, which were publicly displayed, but were careful to stand no closer than ten feet from the arrest so as not to interfere with the arrest.
The rifles were not necessarily to shoot cops, but to portray legitimacy, that the Panthers could deter and assure. According to a University of Virginia website,
The gun was a rhetorical tool, deployed to impress black urban audiences and to warn law enforcement officers and other outsiders. Newton described the emphasis on the gun as “a necessary phase in [the Panthers’] evolution, based on Frantz Fanon’s contention that the people have to be shown that the colonizers and their agents—the police—are not bulletproof



Unfortunately for the Black Panthers, their power was neutered with the passing of the Mulford Act, which restricted open carry ability in California. This bill, like many other gun control bills in America, was designed specifically to restrict the power of African-Americans.

(Of course, notice the racial undertones of the image to the right. "Invaded" by a "Armed Negro Band".)

Community Leaders

Armed or not, the Black Panthers had something the people in the streets of Ferguson do not have: leadership - specifically organized local leadership to either continue protest or negotiate on the streets. While organizations such as the NAACP and national spokespeople such as Al Sharpton make their faces shown, there should be church leaders and neighborhood spokespeople who can control, speak for, and when needed, police communities. Of course, neither the right-wing mainstream media or the left-wing mainstream media dare mention the ability of a community to police itself using guns. They believe either a) guns and should only be used by those in power or b) only be used to protect homes and individual persons.

That's what most people believe and what most people have voted for.

And that's why the power pendulum has swung so far to the system and out of the hands of the people.

To quote Boots Riley of the controversial rap group The Coup: "I got faith in the people and they power to fight / We gon' make this struggle blossom like a flower to light"

Examples of Power

Slowly but surely, I am starting to see more people comment on the "militarization of police forces" in America. This has been the case for a while, but if the situation in Ferguson promotes change, then I'm glad people are finally on board. Even non-news media are talking about it.

(Bill Maher had an interesting take here. A few too many bad punchlines, but good points.)

During the 2012 Republican Convention, I was shocked to see pictures of the security forces. The police and security forces were not the usual run-of-the-mill beat cops, they were heavily armed, SWAT troops. As well, blocks around downtown Tampa were blocked off and people had to show identification cards in order to enter the area. There was even debate whether drones were used. All this for a convention.

Less than a year later, after the Boston Marathon bombings, hundreds of police swarmed the streets armed to the teeth, looking for one man. There was no way the bomber could have had enough firepower to topple the Boston police force. Impossible.

Trust of the populace

One of our biggest problems in the US is trust.

Not only do we not trust each other, the powers that be do not trust the populace. There is the assumption that the populace is "up to no good". This is a really bad assumption. It is what got the US military in trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan. It wasn't until the Petraeus doctrine was enacted and counterinsurgency modified to integration not occupation, did US forces start developing bonds of trust with local populaces.

We have police forces in the United States that don't understand that. Forces can be all-white, all-black, all-Asian, all-Hispanic, or all from Mars, if they don't understand the concerns of the populace, then any effort to be seen as positive contributors will be lost. Police need to be seen as a positive presence, not occupiers. In Ferguson in the last few days, with their tear gas, armored personnel carriers, bullet proof vests, shields, batons, and attempts to silence the media, the police are definitely playing the role of occupiers.

Which brings me to another interesting point. We have in a sense, dehumanized the police. They are the authority, the power, The MAN. But I wonder what goes through their heads when they stand their with their armor and their shields. Are they scared? Are they nervous? How much has their training become instinct? When they make a mistake, it is because they were trained wrong, or because they panicked and did what they thought was right?

We have to understand both sides are human. It is easy to humanize protestors. But we also have to remember in many cases the people in uniform also have families and children and the same concern for human life. Unless they are cold-hearted, jack-booted thugs, which may be possible. Then again, some protestors may be anarchists or wannabe martyrs. But the odds are small of radicals on either side.

Solutions

Again, I am not there. I have no idea the political situation or the personalities involved. But I don't like analyzing something if I am not going to give a "now what?".

Hopefully based on the bad public relations the Ferguson police force received, police forces across the country will review their doctrines and processes. Maybe increase their level of work with community leaders to establish boundaries, processes, and equipment use.

Maybe governors across the United States will put limits on police force equipment acquisitions. The US has limits on personal weapon capabilities. Why not limit the power of the authorities to match or be slightly above the degree of average weaponry owned by the people of the community? Weapon restriction is a state issue or something that can be handled at the local level. I wonder if that is a platform that would garner support in an election. Would people back a candidate who says they are going to reign in police? Better yet, could they?

In the meantime, a short term solution could be a legal person accompanying the police in every action. This legal representative would ensure laws are followed and rights are respected. If this is too consuming, perhaps ridealongs should be mandatory only while forces build relationships within communities.

As for Ferguson, Missouri, they need to take their relationship with the community back to square one. It is broken. There is no way the police will be trusted there again. Their credibility is shot. So too is their ability to deter and assure.

Just some thoughts.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Urban Spawl as Terrorist Deterrent



Besides sports, music, culture, and cartoons, another interest of mine is geopolitics. I've been an avid reader of sites like Stratfor.com for close to 10 years and as many of you know, I have my masters in International Affairs.

Unfortunately, I have zero interest in living in DC, the hub of American international happenings. Absolutely none. It is way too crowded and there is no beach. And everything there is so political. No thanks.

So with that in mind, and being that no one here in Tampa is paying me for my opinions, I hope you don't mind me dropping a few international analyses here. I'll try and keep them readable and somewhat linked to something happening here in the states, in Florida, or local to Tampa.

For example, I'm sure you heard of the recent subway bombings in Moscow. Once again, like in London in 2004, terrorists struck at public transportation systems, this time killing over 30 and injuring dozens more.

Meanwhile, here in Florida, plans are well on their way for a statewide rail system that would reduce traffic and help connect Miami, Orlando, and Tampa. There are also efforts and information campaigns to reduce the urban sprawl that is destroying the natural habitats of the state.

According to a 2006 article in the Orlando Sentinel,
There are some people, however, who think growth can be smarter and more compact with a stronger separation among urban, suburban and rural terrain. Smart growth means better planning and more land preserved. It looks like condos and town houses mixed with single-family homes. Those homes are closer together, linked by walking paths that lead to stores, movie theaters and offices. There may be mass transit. Smart growth in Central Florida is Baldwin Park in Orlando and Celebration by Disney. Across the nation, it's Boston and New York City.
The end state of both efforts is to have more people living amongst each other and traveling en masse.  Nearly everyone agrees this is a good thing - biologists, environmentalists, planners, and even politicians.

I bet you can include terrorists on that list.

Although we haven't had many, if any serious attacks on public transportation systems here in the U.S. (yet), the odds of mass casualties will go up dramatically when we all migrate to urban areas and do a majority of our travel on monorails and people movers. We will drastically increase our chances of being a target and make it easier for terrorists to make a large impact with minimal effort.

Don't get me wrong. I am not discouraging efforts to reduce urban sprawl. To be honest, I hate seeing Best Buys, malls, and housing developments built for no reason in the middle of natural Florida environments. It's sickening.

I'm just saying I hope we prepare for the increased chances of possible terrorist attacks, either from international organizations or nutjob domestic groups. Keep in mind, this may require increased physical security and surveillance.

Is reducing urban sprawl and highway traffic worth the trade-off?

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Rent an Airfield or Sign a Starting Pitcher?



While surfing the international news, I saw a report that stated the United States spends 17.5 million per year to use Kyrgyzstan's Manas Airbase.

17.5 million.

Or approximately five million per year less than the New York Mets will pay pitcher Johan Santana for the next seven seasons.

So this begs the question, would you rather have an airfield in the middle of Central Asia or an ace pitcher?

Let's first examine the benefits of having an ace pitcher:

Acquiring Johan Santana means acquiring quite possibly the best pitcher in baseball. This of course means more wins, higher attendance, more ticket sales, hopefully a playoff berth, maybe even a championship. Unfortunately, this final result may also cause riots, destruction, mayhem, and general disorder through the metropolitian area.

What about renting an airfield for a year?

Acquiring a Situational Operations AirField (SOAF) - kinda like the LOOGY of military bases - means you can use 37 acres, four watchtowers, 300 tents, a fitness room, a chapel, a post office, a recreation room, and a $5 million, 60-bed military hospital. It's like your own little town. Imagine the party potential if you can convince your friends to visit. And while baseball might not be the national pasttime of Kyrgyzstan, you can probably find it in your heart to root for the local Yak Racing team.

So on one hand you have seasonal fame and the eventual sacrifice of civil order and on the other, the sacrifice of social contact for one year in your own area of self-sustaining blissful solitude, albeit cold, barren, and 25 miles from civilization. But you get to see yaks.

Tough call, if you ask me.